Jill Stein, the Green Party’s presidential candidate, has emerged as a potential game-changer in the 2024 US election, with both Democrats and Republicans acknowledging her potential impact on the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. As voters cast their ballots, Stein’s presence on the ticket in nearly all critical states has raised concerns among Democrats that she could siphon crucial votes away from Harris, potentially tipping the scales in Trump’s favor. The Democratic National Committee’s decision to allocate $500,000 for a last-minute campaign in swing states, urging voters not to support third-party candidates, underscores the perceived threat Stein poses to Harris’s chances. This strategy is exemplified by a recent Democratic advertisement titled “Crucial,” which dramatically morphs Stein’s face into Trump’s, warning that “A vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump”.The ad’s message is further reinforced by Trump’s own words at a Pennsylvania rally, where he expressed his appreciation for Stein, stating, “She takes 100 percent from them.”

The potential impact of Stein’s candidacy is particularly significant in key swing states, where even a small number of votes could prove decisive. Recent polls conducted by AtlasIntel in seven crucial swing states reveal varying levels of support for Stein, ranging from 0.7% in North Carolina to 2% in Georgia.While these percentages may seem small, they could be crucial in a tight race. For instance, in Michigan, where Harris currently leads Trump by a mere 0.8 points, Stein’s support stands at 2%4. Similarly, in Wisconsin, where Harris holds a slim 0.6-point lead, Stein accounts for 1% of the votes.The Muslim American vote has become a focal point in this election, with a recent Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) survey showing Stein outperforming Harris among Muslim voters in several swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.This shift is particularly noteworthy given the growing dissatisfaction among Arab-American and Muslim voters towards both Harris and Trump due to their unwavering support for Israel amid the Gaza conflict.

The historical context of Stein’s influence adds another layer of complexity to the current election. In the 2016 election, Stein received 132,000 votes in pivotal states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which collectively hold 44 Electoral votes.Hillary Clinton lost these states by a total of 77,744 votes, and an analysis from November 2016 suggested that had every Stein voter supported Clinton instead, she might have won those states and the presidency.This precedent has heightened concerns about Stein’s potential impact in 2024. However, it’s important to note that as of the current vote count, Stein’s influence appears to be limited.

The potential influence of Stein’s candidacy has not gone unnoticed internationally. European Green parties from countries including Germany, France, Denmark, Italy, and others have issued a collective statement urging Stein to withdraw from the race and endorse Harris. They argue that Harris is the only candidate capable of preventing Trump’s return to the White House and his “anti-democratic, authoritarian agenda”. However, Stein’s campaign has firmly rejected these calls, stating their commitment to the presidential race and refusing to “betray our legion of supporters...regardless of which anti-democratic person or group makes the suggestion”. As the election unfolds, the true impact of Stein’s candidacy remains to be seen, but its potential to influence the outcome in a closely contested race continues to be a subject of intense scrutiny and debate.